Risk and Rare Events

Risk does not necessarily mean it will happen.  It means it has the probability to happen as a range of outcomes.  Because among those outcomes only one will materialize, people often forget and/or underestimate what might happen. We separate risk from uncertainty.  Uncertainty is measured by variance or standard deviation. …

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What is the most important thing to an investor?

In life, sometimes we go through a series of periods between lack information and too much information, thus our perspective and thinking are not correctly formed and clear to answer important questions.  When I started to work at Vietnam Investments Group (VIG), when joining any deals, we research everything possible about …

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Simplify the EU debt crisis

I believe that the today’s EU debt crisis is somehow more difficult to invest if comparing to previous 2008 US financial crisis.  Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t invest around 2008, my first time of joining the market is 2009, and I don’t mean just simply looking at the chart …

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Don’t panic on gold

Just a sudden thinking during a few minutes before London opens, I think people spent too much time talking on gold. Just looking at the gold prices, it’s terrific: all of the fears floating around, safe hard assets accumulating, influx into the US money market in the short-term and not-known-place-yet …

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The curious case of US credit downgrade

It has been one week since S&P downgraded US credit and stock markets around the world has gone through one of their most volatile weeks ever. I’ve stayed close to the markets during this exciting week and in this note I’ll reveal some from my observations. Let’s stop here for …

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Is US system a mega Ponzi scheme?

Recently I think about the idea of my Professor, Tom Nguyen, of whether US is a mega Ponzi scheme. The main argument is: US almost always pays old debts with new debts (and an increase in debt ceiling), moreover, default is not an option toward US’s debts. I did keep …

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Feeling the world closer, everyday.

Every day I start my work, the world looks like this: [Skype] Nov 18, 2010 [8:04:21 AM] US’s inflation was not as high as expected [8:05:41 AM] this showed how strong the recovery in US had taken place [8:06:30 AM] exhausted, get sick of ….. seems to be the common …

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