Risk and Rare Events

Risk does not necessarily mean it will happen.  It means it has the probability to happen as a range of outcomes.  Because among those outcomes only one will materialize, people often forget and/or underestimate what might happen. We separate risk from uncertainty.  Uncertainty is measured by variance or standard deviation. …

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What is the most important thing to an investor?

In life, sometimes we go through a series of periods between lack information and too much information, thus our perspective and thinking are not correctly formed and clear to answer important questions.  When I started to work at Vietnam Investments Group (VIG), when joining any deals, we research everything possible about …

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Prepare for some unthinkables

I first learn the term “unthinkable” from an interview made by WealthTrack with both Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian late last year.  It isn’t a new concept.  We have a wide range of names that cover a part or whole of the concept such as “Worst case”, or “Unexpected case”. …

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The two critical ratios and why gambling is on the different side

I would test these two ratios first on approaching any investment system: The winning ratio and the average size of wining over losing ratio.  Take it a broader way: in order to make capital appreciation (or even in life) one needs (1) win more than lose and/or (2) average size …

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